Ukraine war ceasefire How will it impact the North Korea Russia alliance

SEOUL – As the Ukraine war ceasefire negotiations gain momentum under the mediation of the United States, unease has set in over Pyongyang.

Pyongyang has been a crucial military partner to Moscow in the war, supplying much-needed artillery shells, missiles and troops in exchange for monetary compensation, food, fuel and advanced rocket technology.

But when the time comes for a truce, it is inevitable that North Korea’s relationship with Russia will take a backseat, say analysts.

A March 28 intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defence estimated that North Korea has suffered more than 5,000 casualties in the war as of March. This would account for nearly half of the reported 11,000 troops deployed by North Korea to aid Russia in the battle against Ukrainian forces since October 2024.

While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was said to have dispatched an additional 3,000 soldiers in February to make up for the loss in numbers, analysts say that his anxiety is likely growing, as he watches from the sidelines the attempts by US President Donald Trump to broker an armistice with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Ceasefire talks are still ongoing, but an agreement was reached on March 18 for both Ukraine and Russia to temporarily halt attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days.

Dr Cho Han-bum, senior research fellow at the think-tank Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU),told The Straits Times that it is natural for North Korea to feel uneasy about a ceasefire or possible ending of the war.

“From the perspective of North Korea, which has sent large-scale weapons support and troops, a ceasefire or end of the war would mean a decrease in its strategic value,” he said.

As Russia seeks to normalise relations with the US