Betting frenzy over S Korean President Yoon s impeachment spreads to global prediction market

SEOUL - With the Constitutional Court’s impeachment ruling on President Yoon Suk Yeol looming, a wave of betting has swept across South Korea, reminiscent of the illegal gambling scene that emerged during former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2017.

Betting on Mr Yoon’s fate has proved popular beyond South Korea as well, fuelling a surge in international wagers.

The world’s largest political prediction market, Polymarket, as at the evening on March 17 had about US$15.8 million (S$21 million) riding on whether Mr Yoon will be removed from office before April.

According to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency betting platform that is based in the US but technically not accessible to US customers, as at March 17 there was a 67 per cent chance that the court would uphold the impeachment motion, resulting in Mr Yoon’s removal from office.

Users take positions on the prediction market using USDC, a cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar, with shares priced to represent the corresponding probability.

In this case, a bettor who believes Mr Yoon will still be president on April 1 would currently buy a “No” share for 34 cents, while someone who believes Mr Yoon will be removed from office before then would pay 67 cents per share for “Yes”.

The market price moves based on the bets placed.

When the market is conclusively resolved, the correct prediction pays out US$1 per share, while the other side loses the entirety of their sum wagered.

The prediction market for Mr Yoon’s impeachment first appeared on Polymarket on Dec 5, 2024, following the Dec 3 martial law declaration that led to Mr Yoon’s arrest on Jan 19.

During Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2017, illicit gambling sites similarly sprang up in South Korea, with betting extending to the presidential election that followed.

While the political