Up to 18,000 could die in major Tokyo quake, mostly from fires: Government panel

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The latest estimate, made on the basis of a magnitude 7.3 quake hitting the metropolitan area, is 5,000 lower than the previous calculation in 2013.

PHOTO: AFP

TOKYO – A powerful earthquake that has a high probability of occurring beneath Tokyo and nearby areas within the next few decades could kill up to 18,000 people, with two-thirds of the estimated deaths caused by fires, a government panel showed on Dec 19.

But the latest estimate, made on the basis of a magnitude 7.3 quake hitting the metropolitan area, is 5,000 lower than the previous calculation in 2013, reflecting an increase in seismic-prepared buildings and fire prevention measures in densely packed districts with many wooden houses.

For comparison, there were 15,900 deaths related to the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that devastated north-eastern Japan on March 11, 2011.

Economic losses from factory destruction and reduced production, meanwhile, are projected at 82.6 trillion yen (S$684 billion) in the worst-case scenario, down around 13 trillion yen from the previous estimate.

The government plans to update its disaster preparedness for a Tokyo inland earthquake and strengthen efforts to reduce damage and maintain core government functions under a new disaster management agency to be launched in fiscal 2026.

The government sees a roughly 70 per cent chance of a magnitude 7 quake occurring beneath the metropolis within the next 30 years. The scenario assumes it being centred in the southern central area of Tokyo, where the capital’s core infrastructure would be the hardest hit.

The worst-case scenario