Duterte arrest raises stakes in clash for control of the Philippines

MANILA – Three years ago, the most powerful political families in the Philippines joined hands to secure the nation’s biggest election victory in four decades.

Now, they are locked in a feud that threatens to derail one of Asia’s economic growth stars.

In dramatic events on March 11, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s government arrested and deported his predecessor, Mr Rodrigo Duterte, to face the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

The move came just over a month after the impeachment of his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte, by allies of Mr Marcos. A Senate trial, which will determine whether she gets removed from office, is scheduled to begin in July.

The push by Mr Marcos to sideline his main political opponents marks a gamble that could easily backfire, starting with legislative elections in May that will determine how much he can accomplish in the final three years of his term.

The Dutertes still hold clout, with Ms Duterte a top candidate in polls to win the next presidential vote in 2028.

Just before his arrest at Manila’s airport, Mr Duterte was cheered by thousands of adoring supporters at a Hong Kong stadium, showing the enduring appeal of an outspoken politician frequently compared to US President Donald Trump.

And while Mr Marcos also remains popular, his approval ratings have declined in part due to stubbornly high inflation.

“If something bad happens to the economy, then sympathy might shift to the Dutertes,” said Mr Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director of Teneo, a risk consultancy. “For the Marcoses, this is a calculated risk to eliminate the Dutertes as their primary opponent.”

The danger is that the political rift undermines business and household confidence, posing a headwind for growth in one of Asia’s best-performing economies.

The Philippines’ benchmark stock index fell more