Trump-Kim summit more likely in 2026, with Seoul still left in cold: Report

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In June 2019, US President Donald Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the demilitarised zone separating the two Koreas.

PHOTO: REUTERS

SEOUL - The odds of a North Korea-US summit in 2026 appear higher, but a revival of inter-Korean dialogue is unlikely in the near future, according to a 2026 outlook by a government-affiliated research institute.

Pyongyang’s deepening ties with China and Russia are blunting its incentive to engage with Seoul, even as the US-North Korea impasse that persisted through 2025 does not necessarily have to carry into 2026, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) said in its annual forecast on Dec 16.

“The likelihood of a renewed leader-level meeting has increased to some extent, with the two leaders sharing common ground, including a mutual desire for a summit, a framework of peaceful coexistence and the relegation of the denuclearisation agenda to a later stage,” the report said about a

potential Trump-Kim summit

In particular, US President Trump’s scheduled visit to China in April 2026 could open a window to revive Trump-Kim talks, dormant since June 2019, though such a summit would not necessarily take place in China.

Briefing on their outlook, the authors said Mr Kim’s political calculus would be shaped first and foremost by the scope of potential US sanctions relief, and, secondarily, by progress in President Trump’s bid to end Russia’s war in Ukraine as well as any accompanying shifts in US-Russia relations.

Professor at IFANS, Lee Sang-sook, noted that the “most