South Korean population could drop by 85% in next 100 years: Study

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South Korea is on track to become an “inverted pyramid” society, where the number of dependents far outnumbers those who provide support.

PHOTO: AFP

SEOUL - South Korea’s population could plummet to just 15 per cent of its current level by 2125 if the nation’s ongoing demographic decline continues unabated, according to a private think tank in Seoul on July 2.

In its latest long-term forecast, the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future used a cohort component method to project South Korea’s demographic trends over the next century. This internationally recognised technique estimates future populations by incorporating factors such as birth rates, mortality rates and immigration patterns.

Under the institute’s worst-case scenario, South Korea’s population could drop to 7.53 million by 2125 – a sharp fall from the current 51.68 million. This would be even less than the current population of the city of Seoul alone, which is over 9.3 million.

Even under the most optimistic projection, the population would shrink to 15.73 million, or less than one-third of its current size. The median projection puts the 2125 population at 11.15 million.

The report also highlights the rapidly accelerating pace of population decline. In the median scenario, the population would fall by 30 per cent by 2075, and then by more than half over the subsequent 50 years.

This decline is not only due to falling birth rates but also a compounding effect: With fewer people in each successive generation, the pool of potential parents shrinks, further accelerating the decrease.

South Korea’s demographic pyramid,