Down but not out Philippines election gifts Duterte a shot at political survival

MANILA - A Philippine midterm election may have leaned in President Ferdinand Marcos Jrs favour but the stronger-than-expected showing for estranged vice president and bitter rival Sara Duterte may have given him a jolt, with the possibility of a shift in the balance of power in the rest of his term.

Despite surveys predicting the presidents allies would sweep the Senate election, Duterte gained an important foothold in the high-profile chamber that could ensure she survives a concerted effort by Marcos loyalists to banish her from politics via impeachment and deny her a presidential run in 2028.

Mondays outcome showed Dutertes influence remains far from diminished, despite an acrimonious fallout with Marcos, months of humiliating Congressional enquiries into her offices finances and the arrest and transfer to the International Criminal Court of her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte.

An unofficial tally showed four Duterte-aligned candidates, including Marcos sister and two trusted lieutenants of the detained former president, will win seats in upper house, where an impeachment trial could be convened with the 24 Senators serving as jurors.

With a two-thirds majority needed to convict her and ban her from office for life, Duterte would need only nine votes to be exonerated.

If that happens, she will come out strong and thats a boost for her presidential bid, said Aries Argugay, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.

Sara is looking good in terms of acquittal.

CONSEQUENTIAL ELECTION

The impeachment of Duterte by the Marcos-aligned lower house and dramatic arrest of her father in March could ultimately backfire in galvanizing the vice presidents army of supporters, allowing her to build alliances ahead of a 2028 presidential election that Marcos cannot contest due to a single-term limit.

Despite the midterms rally for Dutertes allies, Marcos managed to secure his