India Pakistan exchange tit for tat attacks sparking fears of escalation

NEW DELHI - India and Pakistan are teetering on the edge of open conflict, after the Indian military struck deep within Pakistan in the early hours of May 7 in retaliation for a terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians in India-administered Kashmir in April.

In the most expansive action ever taken on its neighbour, India rained air strikes on what military officials said were “terror camps” in territory as far away as 30km from the de facto border.

Pakistan called this “an act of war”, saying that the 26 people who died included civilians and vowed to respond “at a time, place and manner” of its choosing.

Meanwhile, cross-border shelling along the Line of Control, the de facto border, on May 7 killed around 15 people in India, said media reports here.

With the nuclear-armed neighbours now engagedin a tit-for-tat spiral, officials and analysts on both sides are also in a race to shape the narrative for what comes next.

Those in India say that the ball is now in Pakistan’s court and that whether the clash escalates is up to Islamabad. Those in Pakistan say that New Delhi’s actions leave Pakistan with little choice but to strike back with full force.

“I do see a limited conflict looming because India has hit Pakistan in multiple places,” said Dr Qamar Cheema, executive director of Sanober Institute, an Islamabad-based think-tank.

“India has attacked Pakistan’s mainland. Pakistan would strike back with full force.”

Professor Harsh V. Pant, vice-president for studies and foreign policy at the New Delhi-based think-tank Observer Research Foundation, said that India does not want the situation to escalate further.

“Ultimately this is a question for Pakistan – whether they want to climb the escalation ladder,” he said.